Rainfall generator for the Meuse basin : description of 20 000-year simulations

The sensitivity of simulated maxima of 10-day precipitation to the set of historical base years used for resampling has been assessed. Eight subsets of 33 years were extracted from the base period 1930-1998 (with the exclusion of 1940). The fraction of days with 10 mm of precipitation or more in the winter half-year and the mean winter precipitation in these subsets were both either high or low, near the edge of the 95%-confidence region of their expected values. Furthermore, the subsets differed with respect to the inclusion or exclusion of the years 1995 or 1984. With each subset a 20 000-year simulation was performed and the quantiles of the simulated 10-day winter maxima were considered.