Viability study of a prototype windstorm for the Wadden Sea surges

This study investigates whether and how a windstorm prototype can be used to simulate the severe and associated currents in the Wadden Sea realistically. This prototype is inspired to the measurements of the overhead wind due to atmospheric cyclonic circulation in the North Sea. Prototype-like synthetic profiles of wind speed and direction prescribe the peak wind speed, the durations of rising speeds and of a subsequent plateau, and the compass sector swept by the wind while turning clockwise. The wind fields are uniform over the entire computational domains, and tidal effects are omitted to concentrate on wind-driven surges. A 270-strong set of synthetic windstorm-surge events is simulated with the WAQUA solver. Six historical events are also simulated with synthetic wind profiles fitted to measurements. It is argued that uniformity is still too a restrictive conditions on the wind field to simulate realistic surges in the Wadden Sea; that more than one windstorm prototype may be relevant to the area; and that the construction of synthetic weather events should be connected to their probability of occurrence.