Consequences of floods : the development of a method to estimate the loss of life

Large parts of the Netherlands lie below sea-level, and the hazard of large scale floods leading to extensive damage and loss of life is always present. In this paper a framework for the estimation of loss of life caused by floods in the Netherlands is proposed. The method takes into account the effect of evacuation during the flood and various mechanisms which lead to fatalitie3s during a flood. The relationships between flood characteristics and number of fatalities are based on data from the 1953 disaster, during which the south-western part of the Netherlands was flooded, and tha caused 1836 fatalities. The method is applied in two case studies to give a first estimate of the number of fatalities caused by a river dike breach near Rotterdam and failure of the coastal defence near Katwijk, both leading to a flood of the Central Holland area.