Transport scenarios for the Netherlands for 2030 : a description of the scenarios for the OECD project "Environmental Sustainable Transport"

Describes the transport scenarios for the OECD project on Environmental Sustainable Transport (EST) for the Netherlands for 2030. The EST project contains a business-as-usual scenario and 3 EST scenarios: (1) a 'high-technology' scenario containing only technological changes, (2) a 'capacity-constraint' scenario containing only mobility changes, (3) an 'optimum-combination' scenario containing the 'optimum' combination of technological and mobility changes. Six EST criteria have been established for the purpose of planning more sustainable transportation systems: reduction of CO2 by 80%, of NOx by 90%, of VOC by 90% between 1990 and 2030, criteria for matter emissions, noise and land use in 2030. It is concluded that all scenarios can only be met, when radical changes take place. The 'combination' scenario will have the best potential societal support.