Statistical model : development of a prototype and implementation as state-space model

START stands for Simulation of Traffic for Application in Real-Time. The general objective of the START project is to develop a practical tool to predict traffic flows and travel times in real-time using the information provided by the on-line traffic monitoring system together with historic and network information. This report describes the work done in building the prototype Statistical Model. This work comprises specification of the architecture of the Statistical Model, specification of the state-space model and the Kalman filter, the representation of the network in a form suitable for the Statistical Model, the traffic dynamics used in the prototype, followed by a small-scale example. Attention is paid to the problem of malfunctioning detector loops, and on-ramp flow prediction based on the use of a historical database. Furthermore attention is paid to the fact that due to considerations of practicality, the network under consideration should be decomposed. The body of the report consists of a document written by Whittaker and Garside, entitled "A state space prediction system for interurban traffic networks : specification and some results.