Modelling statistic of storm duration to assess the reliability of dunes as flood protection : prelimary investigation

To estimate a frequency of failure of a dune, a description of the statistics of the load histories during extreme storms is needed, the so-called load model. It should include the aspect of storm duration and the variability of different parameters such as sea level and peak period during a storm. To arrive at a model which is useful in practice, we need to reduce the total number of random variables involved to a few which really matter and determine their joint distribution function. This can be done in two ways: 1. Strating form the process and 2. Starting from the load history The present study investigates the prospects of both approaches using results from the literature and some exploratory data-analyses an model simulations.